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government policy
Risk Scenarios for the US’s Strategic Pivot
The United States is implementing a more militarized security strategy in the Western Hemisphere, including military strikes against cartels, sanctions enforcement, and the Shield of the Americas initiative. This shift toward force-driven counternarcotics and great power competition creates three potential regional scenarios: US-aligned authoritarian partnerships, criminal expansion with governance collapse, or a strategic realignment toward BRICS. All scenarios increase risks of political instability, regulatory fragmentation, cybercrime, critical infrastructure targeting, and surveillance expansion.
Why it matters: Security practitioners and organizations operating in Latin America, the Caribbean, or with regional supply chains face elevated exposure to kinetic conflicts, sanctions disruption, surveillance intensification, cybercrime expansion tied to cartel financing, and critical infrastructure attacks as US military operations intensify and regional governance structures destabilize.
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- First seen by Cybersecurity Tracker